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Activity title

C-UAS Mission-Level Modelling & Simulation

Activity Reference

SCI-SET-353

Panel

SCI

Security Classification

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Status

Active

Activity type

RTG

Start date

2023-01-24T00:00:00Z

End date

2026-01-25T00:00:00Z

Keywords

Command and Control C2, CounterSwarms, CounterUAS, Decision Support, Detectors, Effectors, Laydown Plans, Modelling Simulation, Simulator Based Acquisition, Vignettes

Background

Although NATO and its partners have long recognized the utility of operating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), it has only been in the last decade that most NATO countries have started to build up means and forces that can counter these systems when they are used by an adversary against NATO’s interests. The size of some Unmanned Aircraft (UA) make these platforms hard to detect. The timelines involved with their operations are short, thus presenting a challenge for decision making. Existing means of engaging aerial threats are not always effective against UA and may not be sustainable in terms of available numbers and/or costs. Due to the low costs of UA and their ease of operation, it is possible to operate UA in large numbers, for example in a coordinated attack or when deployed as a swarm. This could easily lead to saturation of detection systems, an overload of the human operators and attrition of the effectors of a C-UAS system. NATO has initiated several activities that enable the enhancement of C-UAS capabilities. For example, a C-UAS Working Group was founded in 2019, which brings together many NATO stakeholders involved with C-UAS. Several NIAG studies were performed that address the shortcomings of surface based air defences in the C-UAS role. JAPCC has made a number of publications concerning C-UAS, including a comprehensive book on the subject. NCIA has performed an acquisition process for NATO C-UAS systems. STO initiated RTG MSG-154 (Low Slow Small Threats Modelling and Simulation) and SCI 301 (Defeat of Low, Slow and Small Aerial Threats). In addition, it held the Specialist Meeting MSG-SET-183 (Drone Detectability: Modelling the Relevant Signature). While significant efforts are being taken to address the challenge posed by sUA as a threat, it is felt that the current state-of-the-art of C-UAS capabilities is still developing and needs constant attention and progress to keep up with this new and ever-advancing threat. Academia, research institutes and industry are pursuing new technologies and developing more advanced products, while the military forces are introducing and expanding C-UAS capabilities and gaining experience with the actual operations of these systems. One of the recommendations of SCI-301 is to enhance the Modelling and Simulation (M&S) of C-UAS. It is felt that effective M&S can enhance making requirements to systems, the numbers that are needed and selecting the right elements of a C-UAS system (i.e. Simulator Based Acquisition – SBA). It can also assist in performing scenario assessment and evaluation, including making a laydown plan during the preparation phase of a deployment. M&S can enable effective training, for example in a Live-Virtual-Constructive (LVC) setting.

Objectives

The objective of the task group is to develop a common M&S framework that is capable of evaluating relevant scenarios at mission-level. The framework shall be able to model all relevant characteristics of the UA, the environment, detection methods, C2 systems and effectors. The modelling shall be performed at an effects-based level that is sufficient to capture the essential aspects of the C-UAS process. It is felt that in order to achieve this, it is not necessary to model a more detailed physics-based level in most cases. The framework shall subsequently be used for simulating certain selected scenarios, for example some of the vignettes derived in SCI-301. Ideally, the framework shall be verified by modelling scenarios that are executed at NATO trials, after which the results of the simulation and the real-life event can be compared. The foreseen deliverables include: • A common M&S framework (i.e. software) • A report describing the framework, the selected scenarios and the results of the evaluation of these scenarios using the framework

Topics

The major scientific topics that the activity will cover are: • Modelling of UAS characteristics, such as flight characteristics and performance, launch and recovery methods, remote control and datalinks, signatures and payload • Modelling the UAS behaviours to identify the UAS’ intentions • Modelling of the environment, including terrain, buildings, emissions, etc. • Modelling of detection methods, including tracking, classification and identification • Modelling of the processing of data and its transformation to information • Modelling of C2 elements and the decision making process, including (AI-based) decision support tools • Modelling the defence tactics for a proper neutralisation of the threats and the related Rules of Engagements (RoE) • Modelling of effectors • Visualization in both 2D and 3D of sensor and effector coverage • Development of a framework that integrates all relevant components • Development of relevant C-UAS scenarios • Evaluation of relevant C-UAS scenarios within the framework and validating the results with real-life events where possible

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